It is down to the wire. The latest polls show that September's strong margin of opposition to Prop 8 (initially 55% opposed to 38% supporting) has evaporated, largely due to the aggressive campaigning of large, well-funded conservative religious organizations.
The latest Field poll now shows 49% of likely voters opposed to Prop 8, 44% in support, and 7% undecided. The balance could easily tip in either direction. Furthermore, among the 22% of respondents who have already voted, Prop 8 is passing 50% to 44%. Further-further-more, pollsters agree that in similar races in past elections, polls have usually underestimated the number of people who vote against same-sex marriage on Election Day.
The religious right is going into overdrive over the weekend. Focus on the Family and the Family Research Council are organizing a massive 10-hour "pray-in" at San Diego's Qualcomm Stadium.
FoF's James Dobson devoted his entire radio show on Thursday to promoting the rally, saying he felt the hand of God telling him to go, and claiming he was "watching the destruction of Western Civilization" in California.
And in a last-minute, low-blow effort at voter confusion, the Yes on 8 campaign sent out a targeted mailer to African-American households, claiming that Barack Obama supports Proposition 8--although he has actually spoken out against Prop 8 and said that, in general, he is against states amending their constitutions to define marriage as between a man and a woman.
(Not helping the situation, of course, is the fact that Obama has repeatedly said that he opposes gay marriage on religious grounds. You know what would help clear things up? Obama taking a principled stand in favor of marriage equality. Hmm, for some reason I don't think that's going to happen in the next 4 days.)
Many commentators have said that these last-ditch efforts are a sign of desperation on the part of the Yes on 8 campaign. That's true. They could also tip the balance in what's sure to be a very close race.
The religious zealots might be off the deep end when they compare gays to Nazis, but they are right about one thing: what happens in California will set the tone for the rest of the country--either forward toward equality, or backward toward bigotry and hate. So I'm asking all my readers to do at least one of the following things:
1. VOTE. Registered Californians, this means you! If at all possible, vote in person, as it's much more likely that your vote will be counted. And progressives, don't think the fact that Obama has a 20+ point lead in California means you can chill out on Election Day. Get out there and vote!
2. DONATE. The Yes on 8 campaign is still leading the money race by $15 million, and they are sure to raise more over the weekend. The Mormon church alone has contributed $20 million. If you're not voting in California, you can still help by making a donation online. Even a small amount--$50, $20, even $5--helps. I just donated another $50 today. Money raised over the weekend will help us keep ads on the air and organizers on the ground through Election Day.
3. VOLUNTEER. Some polls show that up to 10% of voters could vote the wrong way on Prop 8 our of simple confusion, since in this case "no" means you support gay marriage and "yes" means you oppose it. Sign up to volunteer on Election Day to talk to voters and make sure they understand the issue.
Don't miss your chance to stand up for equality, folks!
Stay tuned for more updates as Election Day approaches...
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